EWN forecasts - Lesvos Island / Mitilini / Pligoni / SV8DTD

15 day weatherforecast Esposende (PT)

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		Temperature	6h Precip	Wind

Temperature

Precip

Wind

Locationinfo

Region: Braga
Latitude: 41.5395°N
Longitude: -8.7816°E
7 masl
Postcode: 4740

Temperature/Precipitation /Pressure Thunder/Dewpoint

		Temperature	Pressure	1h Precip	Dewpoint	Wind	UV	Cloudcover

Temperature/Precipitation /Pressure Thunder/Dewpoint

		Temperature	Pressure	Precip	Dewpoint	Wind	Cloudcover

	CAPE	Lifted Index	Hail	Supercell	Tornado	SRH 3km	CL BTM PRES	CL TOP PRES	Swiss	DWD icon	SMHI TS

Temperature Pressure Wind Precipitation

	EWN Forecast	EWN WRFDA	DWD ICON	FMI HIRLAM	MET Norway	GFS

FMI Hirlam - 7.5 km EWN WRFDA - 12 km GFS - 25 km Basemap

	Updatetimes (Europe/Athens)	Resolution	Length	Steps
EWN WRFDA	05:15, 11:15, 17:15, 23:15	12 km	73h	1h
FMI Hirlam	15:00, 21:00, 03:00, 09:00	7.5 km	49h	1h
GFS	15:45, 21:45, 03:45, 09:45	25 km	237h	3h

	30+ mm
	25-30 mm
	20-25 mm
	15-20 mm
	10-15 mm
	6-10 mm
	4-6 mm
	2-4 mm
	1-2 mm
	0.5-1 mm
	0.2-0.5 mm
	0.1-0.2 mm

	30+ mm
	25-30 mm
	20-25 mm
	15-20 mm
	10-15 mm
	6-10 mm
	4-6 mm
	2-4 mm
	1-2 mm
	0.5-1 mm
	0.2-0.5 mm
	0.1-0.2 mm
	Snowfall
	Sleet
	Hail
	Freezing

	30+ mm
	25-30 mm
	20-25 mm
	15-20 mm
	10-15 mm
	6-10 mm
	4-6 mm
	2-4 mm
	1-2 mm
	0.5-1 mm
	0.2-0.5 mm
	0.1-0.2 mm
	Snowfall
	Sleet
	Hail
	Freezing
	Thunder

	50 mm
	40 mm
	30 mm
	26 mm
	22 mm
	18 mm
	14 mm
	10 mm
	9 mm
	8 mm
	7 mm
	6 mm
	5 mm
	4.5 mm
	4 mm
	3.5 mm
	3 mm
	2.5 mm
	2 mm
	1.5 mm
	1 mm
	0.8 mm
	0.6 mm
	0.4 mm
	0.2 mm
	0.05 mm



	35°




	30°




	25°




	20°




	15°




	10°




	5°




	0°




	-5°




	-10°




	-15°




	-20°




	-25°




	-30°




	-35°

	33> m/s
	29 m/s
	25 m/s
	21 m/s
	17 m/s
	14 m/s
	11 m/s
	8 m/s
	5 m/s
	3 m/s
	0 m/s

	2600 J/kg
	2400 J/kg
	2200 J/kg
	2000 J/kg
	1800 J/kg
	1600 J/kg
	1400 J/kg
	1200 J/kg
	1000 J/kg
	800 J/kg
	600 J/kg
	400 J/kg
	200 J/kg

	70 dBZ
	65 dBZ
	60 dBZ
	55 dBZ
	50 dBZ
	45 dBZ
	40 dBZ
	35 dBZ
	30 dBZ
	25 dBZ
	20 dBZ
	15 dBZ
	10 dBZ
	5 dBZ

	-1 K
	-2 K
	-3 K
	-4 K
	-5 K
	-6 K
	-7 K
	-8 K
	-9 K

	950 m²/s²
	900 m²/s²
	850 m²/s²
	800 m²/s²
	750 m²/s²
	700 m²/s²
	650 m²/s²
	600 m²/s²
	550 m²/s²
	500 m²/s²
	450 m²/s²
	400 m²/s²
	350 m²/s²
	300 m²/s²
	250 m²/s²
	200 m²/s²
	150 m²/s²
	100 m²/s²

	46 m/s
	44 m/s
	42 m/s
	40 m/s
	38 m/s
	36 m/s
	34 m/s
	32 m/s
	30 m/s
	28 m/s
	26 m/s
	24 m/s
	22 m/s
	20 m/s
	16 m/s
	12 m/s
	8 m/s
	4 m/s

	30 m/s
	28 m/s
	26 m/s
	24 m/s
	22 m/s
	20 m/s
	18 m/s
	16 m/s
	14 m/s
	12 m/s
	10 m/s
	8 m/s
	6 m/s
	4 m/s
	2 m/s

	3.0
	2.8
	2.6
	2.4
	2.2
	2.0
	1.8
	1.6
	1.4
	1.2
	1.0
	0.8
	0.6
	0.4
	0.2

	15
	14
	13
	12
	11
	10
	9
	8
	7
	6
	5
	4
	3
	2
	1

	90%
	80%
	70%
	60%
	50%
	40%
	30%
	20%
	10%

	42
	40
	38
	36
	34
	32
	30
	28
	26
	24
	22
	20
	18
	16
	14
	12

	90+ cm
	80-90 cm
	70-80 cm
	60-70 cm
	50-60 cm
	40-50 cm
	30-40 cm
	20-30 cm
	10-20 cm
	1-10 cm

	Snowfall
	Sleet
	Rain

	>120 mm
	115 mm
	110 mm
	105 mm
	100 mm
	95 mm
	90 mm
	85 mm
	80 mm
	75 mm
	70 mm
	65 mm
	60 mm
	55 mm
	50 mm
	45 mm
	45 mm
	40 mm
	35 mm
	30 mm
	25 mm
	20 mm
	15 mm
	10 mm
	5 mm
	0.1 mm



	960 hPa



	880 hPa



	800 hPa



	720 hPa



	640 hPa



	560 hPa



	584 gpdm



	568 gpdm



	552 gpdm



	536 gpdm



	520 gpdm



	504 gpdm



	488 gpdm

Extremely severe	Severe weather		Lightning probability
15%	15%	5%	50%	15%

Day

Today
Tomorrow
Day 3

Map

Thunderstorm probability
Highest temperature
Lowest temperature
Max windgust
24h precipitation



	35°




	30°




	25°




	20°




	15°




	10°




	5°




	0°




	-5°




	-10°




	-15°




	-20°




	-25°




	-30°




	-35°

	33> m/s
	29 m/s
	25 m/s
	21 m/s
	17 m/s
	14 m/s
	11 m/s
	8 m/s
	5 m/s
	3 m/s
	0 m/s

Extremely severe	Severe weather		Lightning probability
15%	15%	5%	50%	15%

	>120 mm
	115 mm
	110 mm
	105 mm
	100 mm
	95 mm
	90 mm
	85 mm
	80 mm
	75 mm
	70 mm
	65 mm
	60 mm
	55 mm
	50 mm
	45 mm
	45 mm
	40 mm
	35 mm
	30 mm
	25 mm
	20 mm
	15 mm
	10 mm
	5 mm
	0.1 mm

Lightning probability maps - Green and yellow colors indicates lightning probability within 40 km of a point. Orange, red and violet are similar levels seen on estofex.org including also probablity for hails and supercells.

dBZ - dBZ stands for decibels relative to Z. It is a meteorological measure of equivalent reflectivity (Z) of a radar signal reflected off a remote object

Cape - Convective available potential energy (CAPE), sometimes, simply, available potential energy (APE), is the amount of energy a parcel of air would have if lifted a certain distance vertically through the atmosphere.

K Index - K-Index is a measure of the thunderstorm potential based on vertical temperature lapse rate, moisture content of the lower atmosphere, and the vertical extent of the moist layer.

TT Index - Convective index used for forecasting severe weather.

WRF - The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) is a next-generation mesocale numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs. WRF is a cooperation between National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), Naval Research Laboratory, University of Oklahoma, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). This software are runned on our server.

WRFDA - A more advanced version of WRF

Arome - The 2.5 km Arome model. Provided by Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

MET Norway - The proff-default 4km meteorological data is a best-guess selection of meteorological models run at met.no and joined/interpolated into a common dataset. Provided by Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

SMHI - The Hirlam model provided by Swedish meteorological institute.

FMI - The Hirlam model provided by Finnish meteorological institute. Covering only Finland.

GFS - The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction computer model run by NOAA.

GEM-GDPS - The GEM-GDPS is a global numerical weather prediction computer model run by the Canadian Meteorological Centre.

Credits/Info: Thanks to Stefan Gofferje at sääkeskus.fi for some of the formulas for GrADS. Infos: Wikipedia.

Accuracy of the forecast

NB! 2015-03-29: Rebuilding the accuracy-test!

The accuracy-check compares measured temperature to the forecasted temperature for ca 500 places north of 52°N up to Nordkapp in North Norway. One criteria for the choosed locations is need of a realible weatherstation (in most cases met office stations). Error-values are in absolute degrees, what means the values are allways positive. The check shows data for last 30 days.

Day 1 Good forecasts

Day 1 Tmax	Day 2 Tmax

Loaded forecasts TOP 50

Total loaded forecasts:

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Belgium

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Netherlands

Norway

Portugal

Sweden

Switzerland

United Kingdom

The EWN Forecast use multiple free numerical models as base for the forecast. EWN are not liable for the quality and accuracy of the forecast.
In addition, we do run an own run of WRFDA EMS model at 12 km resolution whats included in the data. The maps are also generated from the WRFDA EMS model.

In the forecasts are content and data used from:
NCEP (GFS, GEFS & UV), The Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM-GDPS), Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Finnish meteorological institute (FMI), Geonames, MeteoAlarm, WXSIM - near private weatherstations with the WXSIM-software.